Daily Comments (Public)

  • Feb 6, 2023
    Usda announced the sale of 111,800 mt of corn to japan for the current marketing year Usad announced the sale of 200,000 mt of corn to Mexico. half this year , half next year. Lots of odd headlines: Massive earth quake in Turkey. China spy balloon over the Us was 'shot down'. The spy balloon was reportedly bug enough to carry a small jet airliner. The most interesting item today was the comments made on the conf call this morn while going over the numbers for the coming usda report out this week. After reciting last months numbers and the current guesses. The analyst said that "private" estimates were actually lower on the ending stocks for corn and beans, while the Ave guess was higher. Meaning that the commercials ( I know of 2 of them now) talking that they see much more export demand than the usda has projected for the year and they think US exports on corn and beans will be higher. The 'private' guess on the bean carry out was 20 mil bu under the usda Jan report and the corn number was in the 1.1 bil bu range. Along those lines, export inspections for beans were 67millin bushels last week. Usda does not have that big of a number pegged. Cash traders tell me next weeks bean inspection number will be very large also. A week ago I was guessing 50 million for last week. I was off by 17 mil bu. The corn inspection number for last week is nothing to write home about but that will pick up dramatically starting in March. Wheat export inspections came out at just shy of 20 million bushels. We are quietly send bushels out of the PNW. On a related note, Argentina's meal export numbers were the lowest in 20 years for the month of Jan. All of the above is why I keep saying beans will not back off and crush margins will hold. If there is going to be a surprise in the usda report this week, it should be beans coming in with less US ending stocks and also less world ending stocks. Brazil harvest is pegged by Ag Rural at 9% complete vs 16% a year ago. The Brazil farmer is estimated to have sold 30% of his bean crop vs 44% last year and 45% ave. The corn cif market is lucky that crude oil is not rallying so they can get more corn sold. A crude rally into the upper 80's will bring better bids from the ethanol producer and make it harder to corn to make it to the river. On the down side, the US dollar has rallied hard since Friday, Now at 103.5 as of this writing. No quote on 15 pro milling quality on the mpls floor. Zero cars and trains today. No one is loading. Marc Chiodo This is not a solicitation. Any statements derived herein are derived from sources believed to be reliable but are not guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. No responsibility is assumed with respect to any such statement, nor with respect to any expression of opinion contained herein. past performance is not indicative of future results. trading in commodity futures or options involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.