Daily Comments (Public)

  • Sept 28, 2022
    Problems in Europe for some pension funds. Talk of a 1.6 trillion dollar margin call that forced liquidation in crude. Once they were out of the way crude rallied almost 6 bucks. Fallout in the financial markets but everything seems ok late in the day. Low water causing draft problems on the lower Miss. smaller tows and other restrictions. It will raise the cost of shipping. Cost of dry bulk freight on panamax and capesize boats has been falling. Wheat is leading the parade on more concerns in Russia and Ukraine. Folks still pointing fingers at who blew up the pipelines. Ultimately is seems quite bullish to me on energy. Locally end users are still paying high premiums for new crop bushels so they can keep running. The pipeline is definitely empty. Which brings me to the ending stocks numbers coming out on Friday. The average guess for corn ending stocks, or ending stocks as of Sept 1 at 1.497 billion bushels. If the corn pipeline on Sept 1 is 1.497 billion bushels then I'm the Pope. If you want to play this report then get long corn. The margin for a spec positions in the Dec futures is $2,750 per contract. For hedgers it is $2,500 per contract. If you want to reduce the risk of usda throwing a shoe, then walk into the report with buy stops above the market by about 4 cents or so. Just a suggestion, but that is the way I am going to play it. Good luck Marc Chiodo This is not a solicitation. Any statements derived herein are derived from sources believed to be reliable but are not guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. No responsibility is assumed with respect to any such statement, nor with respect to any expression of opinion contained herein. past performance is not indicative of future results. trading in commodity futures or options involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.