Daily Comments (Public)

  • Oct 15, 2021
    Usda announced the sale of 396,000 mt of beans to unknown for the 21/22 marketing year. usda announced the sale of 326,750 mt of beans to unknown for the 21/22 marketing year. usda announced the sale of 132.000 mt of beans to China for the 21/22 marketing year. Rebound Friday. Oats closed limit up. MPLS wheat made new contract highs. (yes, I expect it to go higher). Nov crude oil made new contract highs. Oversold markets combined with good weekly sales and spot demand along with some popping in basis levels gave us a strong market all day today. US dollar was steady. In addition to the spot announcements above, weekly sale came in very good with 20.7 mil bu wheat, 40.9 mil bu corn and 42.2 mil bu of beans. We are roughly 50% done with corn harvest and we are seeing basis levels around the north parts of the corn belt popping up already. 35 ov the Dec in ND and 30 ov Dec in WI. Sou MN finally backed off to around option price to 5 under after being 30 over for the first half of harvest until Weds of this week. What it all tells me is that we were completely out of corn in the western side of the corn belt. Either the eastern side of the belt had all of the carry out the usda projected or their numbers were too high. Given that we are still hearing about good corn yields and basis does not want to break tells me the usds numbers were high. don't forget we fed wheat all summer as soon as it came off for harvest. Everyone that we see using corn is making a profit doing so, except the cattle feeders and they are not backing off on usage. Ethanol is profitable and booking out ahead. I do not see energy backing off. Ethanol output has increased 13% over the past 2 weeks yet stocks declined last week. since they are turning a profit they will do whatever it takes to keep sourcing the bushels. Up until today's rally we were seeing calculations for using corn and wheat for heat this winter. all this tells me I do not see any down side. alternative uses for corn are putting a floor on the market. On the flip side we have feed wheat and milo ready to compete for for feed value where it can. once harvest is over we should see another bounce one way or another, either basis or board as bushels find their way into a bin and are harder to break loose once that happens. Wheat markets are firm. I was told this morning US HRW wheat is competitive on the world market. Western Milling basis had jumped for HRW. NOPA crush came out today at 153.8 vs ave guess of 155.1 million bushels. Fertilizer costs seem to be going up on a daily basis. It should put a pause on further crop sales. somewhere the value of corn between today's prices and next year's breakeven will have to meet. I am not an eager seller of feed grains or food grains. Beans i am warming up a little. However Part of the pressure on the board this week was due to good weather in south America. Today we are seeing stories about weather pattern shifts. Also talk about China not buying enough beans from us. But we just sold 31 million bushel over night. Most of it to China. today is Oct 15. there is a lot of crop year to go. Have a good weekend Marc Chiodo This is not a solicitation. Any statements derived herein are derived from sources believed to be reliable but are not guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. No responsibility is assumed with respect to any such statement, nor with respect to any expression of opinion contained herein. past performance is not indicative of future results. trading in commodity futures or options involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.